Protecting the Voting Rights of the San Gabriel Valley’s Asian American Community: Is Proposed CD210 in the California Congressional Map an Asian American Ability to Elect District? No
By Dr. Christian Grose and Dr. Natalie Masuoka
Executive Summary of Research Results
We have conducted racially polarized voting analyses of the San Gabriel Valley. We examined the extent to which Asian American voters are a cohesive voting bloc in the San Gabriel Valley; and whether there is racially polarized voting between Asian American voters and non-Hispanic white voters in the San Gabriel Valley. We also looked specifically at districts in the western San Gabriel Valley. Our analyses examined CA-27, which was an ability-to-elect district drawn in the previous 2012-20 map of California congressional districts that included Asian American communities both north and south of the 10 freeway. We also considered exogenous statewide elections with Asian American candidates on the ballot who were cohesively preferred by Asian American voters in the San Gabriel Valley. These racially polarized voting analyses were conducted utilizing standard methodologies from the academic literature on voting rights as well as by experts in voting rights litigation in the courts.
CA 2021 Redistricting Draft Map of current CD-27, which includes West San Gabriel Valley (Source: WeDrawTheLinesCA.org)
We evaluate the CD210 proposed congressional district, which the California Citizens Redistricting Commission released in its draft maps in mid-November. This district is pictured in the map to the left in purple. We conclude that the district in its current form has too low of an Asian American CVAP to be an Asian American ability to elect district. The Asian CVAP percentage would need to be increased in order to provide an opportunity for Asian Americans to elect an Asian American candidate of choice.
A district in the San Gabriel Valley that is approximately 35% Asian CVAP would be a district that is an Asian American ability to elect district. We know this empirically as CA-27 as drawn for the 2012-2020 map is an Asian-American-ability-to-elect district. Based on the racially polarized voting analyses we have conducted in previous elections, Asian-American voters in this SGV-based extant district cohesively support Asian-American candidates of choice. This is a critically important finding for drawing district lines for the 2022 congressional redistricting process as the 2020 version of this San Gabriel Valley district is 35% Asian CVAP. Thus, empirically, we know that a 35% Asian CVAP allows for the ability of Asian American voters to elect Asian American candidates of choice. Asian American candidates of choice may also be more likely to be elected if Asian American voters are the largest minority plurality group in the district.
There is evidence that Chinese-American voters and Asian-American voters are generally cohesive in support of Asian American candidates of choice for Congress and other exogenous elections in the west San Gabriel Valley. Support for Asian-American candidates of choice exists across many Asian national origin groups in the San Gabriel Valley. We examined racially polarized voting in CA-27 in 2018 and 2020 in the San Gabriel Valley, and find high cohesion in this district from the previous decade’s map. There was evidence of cohesion in voting by Chinese Americans found in the west San Gabriel Valley, as was cohesion across many Asian American national origin groups of voters more broadly.
There is some evidence of racial polarization between Asian American voters and non-Hispanic white voters in the San Gabriel Valley. Given the potential for racially polarized voting, in order to elect Asian American candidates of choice to win, it is important to create a district that has a large enough Asian CVAP to give Asian candidates an opportunity to elect in a newly drawn Asian influence district; or in an Asian ability to elect district in the 2022 redistricting cycle. Having Asian American CVAP be the largest plurality group in a district may also thus be important for drawing a district with an opportunity to elect an Asian American candidate of choice.
The current map splits cohesive Asian American communities in the western San Gabriel Valley in half. The Asian American communities in the SGV are divided between proposed district CD210 and CDCOV. We are concerned this results in vote dilution of Asian Americans in the San Gabriel Valley. The proposed map should be revised so as not to divide these cohesive Asian American communities north and south of the 10 freeway. Asian American voting strength could be enhanced by combining this community into one district.
The Commission’s proposed CD210 draft map in the San Gabriel Valley reduces the voting power of Asian American voters in the San Gabriel Valley and is not an Asian American ability to elect district. As currently drawn, CD210 is only 23.5% Asian CVAP. We estimated a linear probability model to analyze the statistical relationship between the Asian CVAP % and the likelihood of electing Asian American candidates of choice in L.A. County and southern California legislative districts. This statistical analysis shows that this Asian CVAP percentage (23.5%) is too low to provide the opportunity to elect an Asian American candidate of choice in a San Gabriel Valley congressional district. Asian American candidates of choice will only win about one third of the time in a district that is 23.5% Asian American. In this 23.5% Asian CVAP district proposed in the SGV, the statistical analysis suggests that Asian American candidates of choice will likely lose about 63% of the time.
The Commission can enhance the ability of Asian American voters to elect a candidate of choice by adding more Asian American voters to CD210. Considering both the racially polarized voting analyses that we conducted in the San Gabriel Valley; and the linear probability model estimating the Asian CVAP % needed to allow for a greater opportunity for Asian American voters to elect a candidate of choice, the Commission can create a more Asian-effective congressional district by increasing the percentage of Asian Americans in the CD210 proposed district.
A district in the San Gabriel Valley that is nearer to 35% Asian CVAP will provide an opportunity to elect Asian American candidates of choice. Our statistical analysis based on the linear probability model statistical estimation suggests that a district that is 35% Asian CVAP will provide a nearly 60% probability of an Asian candidate running for and winning in the proposed CD210.
CDCOV is not a district that is likely to elect an Asian candidate of choice because it is a district that is likely to be a Latino ability to elect district given its Latino CVAP percentage. South of the proposed district CD210 is proposed district CDCOV. While proposed CDCOV has a slightly higher Asian CVAP than proposed CD210, CDCOV is a Latino-majority CVAP district. A statistical analysis of CDCOV shows this proposed district is more likely to be a Latino ability to elect district, and not an Asian American ability to elect district. Thus, moving Asian American communities from CDCOV into the proposed CD210 to make the district higher in Asian CVAP is key to providing the ability for L.A. County’s Asian American voters to have an ability to elect candidates of choice. Further, placing more Asian American CVAP into CD210 to increase its Asian CVAP to be closer to 35% and out of CDCOV will not detract from CDCOV’s ability to elect Latino candidates of choice, though reconfigurations would be needed for population equality across districts.
How can the Commission create a district that is closer to 35% Asian CVAP using CD210 as the baseline? The western San Gabriel Valley is currently split between proposed district CD210 and proposed district CDCOV, which is south of proposed district CD210. The 10 freeway divides these Asian American communities in the western San Gabriel Valley and the 10 freeway is being used in the proposed maps as a border between these two proposed districts. This splitting of the western San Gabriel Valley reduces CD210 to 23.5% Asian. The Commission could move Asian American voters in CDCOV into CD210 to increase the Asian American CVAP in CD210, which would then also leave CDCOV as a Latino ability to elect district.
To create such a revised CD210 district that is effective for Asian American voters, Alhambra, Monterey Park, Rosemead, and South San Gabriel could be included in a revised mapping of CD210. Adding these historically and culturally important Asian American communities together with Asian American communities in CD210 would statistically increase the size of the Asian American CVAP in CD210. There may be other high-Asian American population communities in the San Gabriel Valley currently in other districts that can be added to CD210, such as El Monte. In adding these higher-VAP and higher-CVAP Asian communities, CD210 must have some of its non-Asian populations moved into neighboring districts to balance total population equity.
Combining these high-Asian communities into one congressional district in the San Gabriel Valley will increase the Asian American CVAP in proposed CD210. It is critically important to increase the Asian CVAP in a congressional district in the San Gabriel Valley to provide an opportunity to elect. Such a district that can provide Asian voters to have an opportunity to influence the outcome will require a district in which (1) Asian American voters are the largest plurality group; (2) and Asian American voters are close to 35% Asian CVAP in the district.
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Footnote 1: Christian R. Grose and Natalie Masuoka. 2021. “Racially Polarized Voting in L.A. County’s San Gabriel Valley.” Also, for an excellent discussion of Asian American voters as a potentially cohesive voting group in California elections, see this peer-reviewed article: Sara Sadhwani. 2021. “The influence of candidate race and ethnicity: the case of Asian Americans.” Politics, Groups, and Identities. Sadhwani finds that Asian American voters cohesively support Asian American candidates under conditions likely to be found in the San Gabriel Valley, where an Asian-American candidate of choice will be opposed by candidates of another racial/ethnic background. In these instances, Asian American candidates of choice have been found to be cohesively supported by Asian American voters.
About the Authors
Dr. Christian Grose is Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of Southern California. He is the Academic Director of the USC Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global Policy. He received his Ph.D. from the University of Rochester and his B.A. from Duke University. He is the author of more than 40 articles and chapters about American politics; legislative politics; race and ethnicity; Latino politics; Black politics; voting rights; and statistical methodology. These articles have been published in peer-reviewed journals such as the American Political Science Review, the American Journal of Political Science, and the Journal of Politics. His award-winning book Congress in Black and White, analyzes the role of race and ethnicity in the redistricting process. His research has been funded by the Russell Sage Foundation, the Leonardo DiCaprio Foundation, the MIT Election Data Science Center, and others. Grose directs USC’s Fair Maps and Political Reform Lab, which produces nonpartisan research about redistricting, the top-two primary, and independent commissions. He has worked as an expert witness and consultant on numerous voting rights cases, and has extensive experience analyzing racially polarized voting and minority ability-to-elect districts. He has experience working with bipartisan and nonpartisan groups such as commissions.
Dr. Natalie Masuoka is Associate Professor of Political Science and Asian American Studies at UCLA. Professor Masuoka’s research expertise is on racial minority voting and public opinion with a particular focus on Asian American and Latino voters. Her research uses quantitative statistical techniques to analyze racial voting patterns. She is the author of two books and 12 articles focusing on these areas. She obtained her Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of California, Irvine, and she is a longstanding expert on the Voting Rights Act. She is an expert on racially polarized voting analyses, especially Hispanic and Asian-American RPV in California. She teaches classes that focus on the Voting Rights Act, American immigration policy, the U.S. Census, political behavior as well as introductory statistics. She has previously held positions at Duke University and Tufts University.